2026 HOLIDAY SHOPPING TRENDS: FORECAST

Value-first shopping is powering online holiday growth and share.

Consumers with strong value expectations will fuel record online spending and drive ecommerce to make up $1 out of every $4 spent on retail goods this holiday season.

Expect accelerated AI momentum heading into the holidays.

AI-driven traffic to retail sites grew 127% YoY in August 2026 and is projected to remain strong through the holidays, with traffic expected to grow 130% YoY overall and 141% YoY on Thanksgiving.

Key insight: 69% say they are less likely to return an item they bought with the help of an AI assistant.

Shoppers get some breathing room with online prices ahead of the holidays.

In addition to seeking out deals on new tech, high-ticket items, and gifts, consumers are increasingly turning to holiday sales to save on essentials like clothing basics, personal hygiene products, and household cleaning supplies.

Discounts will keep building earlier each year: 14% off in early November, 21% off just before Thanksgiving, and 30% off—the season's deepest—once Cyber Week hits.

Thanksgiving is forecast as the strongest mobile shopping day.

Mobile shopping tends to peak on holidays when people are at home with family and less likely to be using a computer. This translates to $4.4 billion spent via mobile device on Thanksgiving Day, up 11% from 2025.

BNPL spend forecast to hit record $21.3 billion.

$1.3 billion more than was spent through the Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) method in 2025, more than an additional Cyber Monday's worth of BNPL spending.

Key insight: BNPL continues to grow as an important payment method for consumers, with BNPL spend forecasted to grow 6.6% YoY.