Adobe: Prime Day event expected to drive $23.8 billion in online spend across U.S. retailers.
07-07-2025
The Prime Day event is an industrywide moment for e-commerce, with discounts happening broadly across U.S. retailers in the month of July. Adobe released its forecast today, covering the period from July 8 to 11. U.S. retailers are expected to drive record spend online, with strong discounts across major categories. Budget-conscious consumers are adjusting how they shop as well, leveraging generative AI to find deals and getting a head start on back-to-school shopping.
Adobe’s report provides the most comprehensive view into U.S. e-commerce by analyzing direct transactions online, covering over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories.
Black Friday in the summer.
U.S. retailers are expected to drive a record $23.8 Billion in online spend from July 8 to 11, representing 28.4% growth year-over-year (YoY) — and $9.6 billion more than the comparable period last year. This is equivalent to two Black Fridays, which drove $10.8 billion in online spend during the 2024 holiday shopping season. Shopping on mobile devices is set to hit an all-time high, driving 52.5% of online sales (vs. desktop shopping) at $12.5 billion. This continues to be a growth driver for U.S. retailers, with more impulse shopping happening on mobile devices.
Discounts are expected to remain at historically high levels — on par with the major deals consumers saw last year during the Prime Day event. Overall, discounts across U.S. retailers will be in the range of 10% to 24% (off listed price). Across categories, Adobe expects apparel to have the biggest deals at 24% (vs. 20% last year). Other categories with major discounts will include electronics at 22% (vs. 23%), televisions at 17% (vs. 16%), appliances at 16% (vs. 14%), toys at 15% (vs. 15%), furniture at 14% (vs. 16%), computers at 12% (vs. 11%), and sporting goods at 10% (vs. 11%).
Consumers are expected to “trade up” to higher-ticket items, driven by strong discounts. The share of the most expensive goods is set to increase by 18% (compared to average levels year-to-date). In categories including electronics, the share of the most expensive goods is expected to rise by a significant 52%. The trend holds across sporting goods (up 32%), appliances (up 29%), furniture (up 28%), toys (up 18%), personal care (up 15%), and apparel (up 9%). Categories with a drop include home and garden (down 4%) and grocery (down 6%), as consumers embrace lower-priced products.
Consumers get head start on back-to-school shopping.
From K-12 to higher education, shopping for essentials is expected to take place ahead of the school season, which generally begins in mid August to early September. Adobe expects a boost in online sales for backpacks & lunchboxes (up 225% compared to the daily average in June 2025), kid’s apparel (up 200%), and general school/office supplies (up 180%). Strong growth is also expected in twin/full mattresses & toppers (up 55%), bedroom/bathroom linens (up 49%), microwaves (up 75%), headphones & speakers (up 150%), and computers (up 140%) — essentials for many college students.
Outside of back-to-school shopping, Adobe expects consumers have been waiting for good deals before hitting the buy button on products they were eyeing. Strong growth is expected in home security products (up 200% compared to the daily average in June 2025), along with Ereaders (up 180%), televisions (up 150%), luggage (up 130%), streaming devices (up 135%), vacuums (up 130%), small kitchen appliances (up 95%), smartphones (up 90%), smart home items (up 80%), and books (up 65%).
Generative AI embraced as shopping assistant.
A new trend this year is around generative AI-powered chat services and browsers. During the 2024 holiday shopping season, Adobe observed the first material surge in generative AI traffic to U.S. retail sites (measured by shoppers clicking on a link). Between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, 2024, traffic from generative AI sources increased by 1,300% compared to the prior year.
This trend continues to persist: During the Prime Day event, Adobe expects traffic from generative AI sources to increase by 3,200% YoY. And while AI-driven traffic remains modest compared to other channels such as paid search or email, the growth shows the value consumers are seeing in leveraging AI to quickly find information on deals and product details.
In a recent Adobe survey of 5,000 U.S. consumers, the shopping tasks respondents said they used generative AI for include conducting research (per 55% of respondents), receiving product recommendations (47%), seeking deals (43%), getting present ideas (35%), finding unique products (35%) and creating shopping lists (33%). Of those who have used AI for shopping, 92% said it enhanced their experience, with 87% saying that they are more likely to use AI for larger or more complex purchases.
Additional Adobe insights.
- Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) usage is expected to see a slight uptick, as budget-conscious consumers seek greater flexibility in managing their spend. During the Prime Day event, Adobe expects BNPL to drive between $1.8 billion and $1.9 billion of overall online spend. This represents an 8% share, up from 7.6% last year.
- Impact of Social Influencers: Across major marketing channels, paid search will remain the top driver of retail sales during the Prime Day event, with its expected share of revenue around 28% — up by 1% to 3% YoY. In affiliates and partners—which includes social media influencers — share of revenue is set to come in at 19.9%, but growth has been more substantial (up 16% YoY). Adobe’s data also shows that influencers are set to convert shoppers (individuals making a purchase after seeing influencer content) 10 times more than social media overall.
- Impact of inflation: Strong spending during the Prime Day event will be driven by net-new demand, as opposed to higher prices. The Adobe Digital Price Index, which tracks online prices across 18 product categories, shows that e-commerce prices have fallen for 33 months — down 2.01% YoY in May 2025. Adobe’s numbers are not adjusted for inflation, but if online inflation were factored in, there would be even higher growth in topline consumer spend.
Recommended for you
https://business.adobe.com/fragments/resources/cards/thank-you-collections/digital-insights
