2025 HOLIDAY SHOPPING TRENDS
Winter’s here — and so are the holiday retail trends.
Every season, we add trillions of retail datapoints to a list and check it twice. Learn more about real-time insights into consumer spending from Adobe Analytics.
The UK holiday shopping forecast is here.
The 2025 UK seasonal outlook highlights forecasted top-line spend, the days expected to drive the highest sales, and the continued rise of mobile as the dominant shopping channel. Buy now, pay later is projected to see increased spend throughout the season, while AI-driven traffic to retail sites is set to accelerate rapidly. See below for more detailed insights shaping this holiday season.
Total season spend forecast
Mobile spend forecast
BNPL spend forecast
Top-line retail spend forecast
The 2025 holiday season is expected to surpass the record levels set in 2024 as online holiday spending sees its third successive year of positive year-on-year growth. Adobe forecasts a record £26.9B will be spent online this holiday season (Nov 1–Dec 31, 2025) up 4.2% year-on-year. Daily online spending will hit its 2025 peak on Black Friday at £1.19B.
Consumer spend during the holiday season
Forecasted spend on key days
Mobile spend forecast
Mobile devices have cemented their dominance, and that is expected to continue into the holiday season. Adobe forecasts mobile revenue share to hit 56.7% this holiday season, and account for £15.3 bn in online spend.
Mobile revenue share forecast
Buy now, pay later forecast
Adobe forecasts £3.8B will be spent through the payment method this holiday season (Nov 1–Dec 31, 2025), up 5.4% year-on-year. Cyber Monday is forecasted to be the largest day on record as BNPL online spend is expected to come in at £159.3 million, up 4.2% year-on-year.
BNPL Cyber Monday spend forecast
AI-driven ecommerce traffic forecast
This holiday season, traffic from AI sources (LLMs) to retail sites is expected to rise 410% from the 2024 holidays. The major shopping days will see major increases in AI traffic with Black Friday and Boxing Day seeing traffic share up 310% and 750% respectively year-on-year.
AI Traffic Forecast
Top trending products forecast
Toys, video games and consoles, and electronics are all expected to be key drivers of holiday spending. Below are the products and categories Adobe expects to fly off the shelves this holiday season.
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