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2025 HOLIDAY SHOPPING TRENDS

Every season, we add trillions of retail datapoints to a list and check it twice. Learn more about real-time insights into consumer spending from Adobe Analytics.

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The holiday shopping forecast is here.

The 2025 seasonal outlook highlights forecasted top-line spend, the days expected to drive the highest sales, and the continued rise of mobile as the dominant shopping channel. Buy now, pay later is projected to see increased spend throughout the season, while AI-driven traffic to retail sites is set to accelerate rapidly. See below for more detailed insights shaping this holiday season.

Top-line retail spend forecast

The 2025 holiday season is poised to be the first quarter trillion-dollar holiday season. Adobe forecasts a record $253.4B will be spent online this holiday season (Nov 1–Dec 31) up 5.3% year-on-year. Daily online spend will hit its 2025 peak on Cyber Monday at $14.2B.

Mobile spend forecast

Mobile devices have cemented their dominance, as 2025 is poised to be the first full year mobile makes up more than 50% of online spend. Adobe forecasts mobile revenue share to hit a record 56.1% this holiday season, while 7 in 10 retail site visits will take place on mobile devices.

Buy now, pay later forecast

Adobe forecasts $19.8–20.4B will be spent through the payment method this holiday (Nov 1–Dec 31), 9–12% growth over 2024. Cyber Monday will set a record for BNPL spend in a single day with $1.05–1.08B and will become the first day to cross $1 billion in BNPL spend.

AI-driven ecommerce traffic forecast

This holiday season, traffic from AI sources (LLMs) to retail sites is expected to rise 515–520% from the 2024 holidays. Thanksgiving Day is expected to see the largest growth in AI traffic with 725–730% growth year on year.

Toys, video games and consoles, and electronics are all expected to be key drivers of holiday spending. Below are the products and categories Adobe expects to fly off the shelves this holiday season.

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