The 2025 holiday shopping season is set to be one for the record books. New insights from Adobe, powered by Adobe Analytics, forecasts UK consumers will spend a headline-grabbing £26.9 billion online between November 1^st and December 31^st, up more than 4 percent compared with last year and the highest online holiday spend ever recorded in the UK.

It marks a third straight year of positive growth, driven by a mix of more cheaper prices online, heavy expected spending over Cyber Weekend, and strong seasonal performance of social media and influencers as channels driving consumers to retail sites.

It’s an encouraging sign for retailers following a mixed year characterised by periods of low consumer confidence, inflation affecting the prices of everyday items and a more cautious spending environment.  Shoppers have been more selective with their non-essential purchases and holding out for major shopping and discounting events to get as much value as possible.  With Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Boxing Day, the holiday period provides shoppers with these moments in abundance, and a long list of gifts to purchase.

Cyber Weekend set to smash records

If the broader holiday season is strong, Cyber Weekend spending looks unstoppable. Over the four-day sale period, Brits are expected to splash £3.8 billion, up 4.4% on last year and accounting for 14.2% of all holiday revenue.

Black Friday alone will hit £1.19 billion (up 6.6% YoY), with Cyber Monday following at £963.6 million (up 2.6% YoY). Meanwhile, Boxing Day is expected to surpass £500 million for the first time, up 4.6% compared with last year.

Mobile continues to dominate, with £15.3 billion in purchases expected to come from smartphones and tablets during November and December – almost 57% of total online spending for the period. For most shoppers, browsing, comparing prices, and buying now take place in the palm of their hand, while on the sofa at home or on the go.

Despite an uncertain economic environment, the numbers clearly show that demand hasn’t disappeared completely. Rather, consumers are waiting for the right moments to spend. Competitive discounts and better value are pulling people back online, with the average daily online spend during November and December expected to be almost 50% higher than the rest of the year.

Santa’s little helper: The first GenAI Christmas

If 2024 was the year people started experimenting with GenAI, 2025 is the year it becomes a more established part of their online shopping routine.

Traffic from GenAI platforms to retail sites has risen sharply – up 730% in September 2025 compared with the year before, and it’s expected to be up 410% on an annual basis this holiday period. Consumers are using GenAI tools for gift inspiration, deal hunting, and product comparisons. This Christmas will be the first where many UK shoppers will be using shopping features in AI assistants as their own personal shoppers.

Black Friday and Boxing Day will see the sharpest spikes in AI-driven traffic, up 310% and 750% YoY respectively, as people use tools like ChatGPT and Gemini to surface the best deals quickly.

Discoverability through AI platforms is fast becoming the new frontier of retail marketing. Retailers that optimise content and product feeds for these engines will be better placed to capture early intent and convert searches into sales. Adobe’s LLM Optimizer helps by showing which pages are most often indexed by GenAI systems and offering guidance on how to improve visibility.

Social commerce and influencers take centre stage

Social platforms are set to be another major growth story this Christmas. While social still represents a relatively small share of total revenue at under 5%, it’s growing fast. Adobe data shows social-driven revenue is forecast to climb over 40% during November and December, making it the fastest growing channel of the season.

Instagram and TikTok lead the charge, with traffic shares expected to jump about 52% and 45% respectively, with YouTube following at around 29%. Facebook’s share is projected to dip slightly as newer platforms capture younger, more engaged audiences and retailers up their investments on more video and visual platforms.

Much of this growth can be credited to influencers and online content creators, who’ve evolved into powerful referral engines. Gift guides, live shopping, and product reviews are shaping purchase decisions at scale.

For retailers, the message is clear: authenticity converts. Shoppers trust recommendations that feel personal, and social content delivers discovery, validation, and convenience in one place.

A surprising comeback for noughties icons

When it comes to gifting, 2025 will give rise to an unexpected comeback: retro tech. From CD players and point-and-shoot digital cameras to MP3 players and classic games consoles, Gen Z is rediscovering the charm of single-purpose gadgets.

It’s a trend rooted in nostalgia and a desire to spend less time on smartphones. After years of smartphone dominance, younger consumers are exploring simpler ways to enjoy music, take photos, or unwind, without the distraction of notifications. The revival of 2000s era tech reflects a shift toward intentional, distraction-free experiences.

Alongside this, beauty, fashion, and entertainment remain strong, with holiday stalwarts like jewellery, personal care, and video games expected to feature prominently on gift lists. Affordable luxury items are also on the rise as shoppers look for small indulgences that still feel special.

Trading down, then trading up

The year-long retail picture remains one of caution and selective purchases. Across 2025, consumers have traded down to cheaper goods in categories like furniture, apparel, and homeware. The holidays, however, are when they trade back up, taking advantage of discounts to buy higher value products and treat themselves and the people they are buying gifts for.

Premium items are set for the biggest lift compared with the rest of the year, with personal care products (+41%), sporting goods (+36%), and electronics (+32%) all expected to see notable gains on a share basis versus January to September averages. After months of restraint, shoppers are ready to spend on quality, provided the timing and offers are right.

3 key lessons for retailers during the 2025 holiday season

With record spending forecast, this holiday season offers a valuable opportunity, and a challenge. Shoppers are more discerning than ever. The winners will meet them where they are, on mobile, in social feeds, and increasingly, within GenAI ecosystems.

Here are three takeaways for retailers:

1. Plan around key moments: Event-driven shopping is now a defining feature of consumer behaviour. Shoppers are holding out for the biggest discount days, so planning ahead is critical. Build anticipation with early teasers, countdowns, and wish-list tools that help customers prepare for eventised shopping moments like Cyber Weekend and Boxing Day.
2. Optimise for GenAI and social discovery: From GenAI assistants to social feeds, discovery now starts long before a customer visits a retailer’s site. Ensure product data, descriptions, and imagery are structured so that AI tools and social algorithms can easily surface them. Test how content appears in these spaces using tools like Adobe LLM Optimizer.
3. Balance price with experience: Shoppers are price-aware but not purely price-driven. They’re looking for value that feels fair and frictionless and an experience that feels premium. Trust, convenience, and service are what convert a sale into loyalty. Clear delivery timelines, responsive customer support, and personalised follow-ups all make a difference.

We will be updating our figures as the season progresses.  You can find all of these insights and more here.

Vivek is a leading insights analyst who has worked with some of the largest CPG & Technology organizations, in the world, to drive key digital marketing & data science initiatives. As the Director for Adobe Digital Insights (ADI), he launched & spearheads the popular Adobe DEI (Digital Economy Index) & Holiday Retail reports, as well as other industry reports that profile emerging technology, creativity, and travel trends. Prior to joining Adobe, Vivek worked with E. & J. Gallo, where he was part of their Consumer & Product Insights Group, advising brands on how to track and measure the impact of global marketing campaigns. Additionally, Vivek has lead data science teams to develop effective propensity models and automate digital campaign management. Vivek holds a MS in Predictive Analytics and Data Science from Northwestern University and BBA from Georgia State University.

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