The future of advertising in the AI era.

Sam Garfield and Zack Ackerman

05-29-2025

Two women talk while viewing a tablet showing audiences of sports fans and luxury retail shoppers. The app recommends adding the latter to increase conversions.

The advertising landscape is undergoing rapid transformation, and media publishers are at the center of this shift — navigating changing consumer behaviors, evolving technology, and increasing demand for measurable, performance-driven advertising.  With more and more ad inventory hitting the market, eMarketer has forecasted continued downward pressure on CPMs throughout the first half of 2025. To remain competitive, fill ad inventory, and capture new revenue opportunities, publishers must rethink how they monetize audiences and deliver value to advertisers.

To better understand what drives advertising effectiveness in this environment, we partnered with Brian Wieser, a leading strategic analyst covering advertising, media, and technology, and principal of Madison and Wall. Through a meta-analysis of existing research, he compared the influence of creative quality — including copy, imagery, and video — versus media planning factors such as targeting, reach, and channel selection on advertising outcomes.

Creativity still leads.

While the ad industry has focused heavily on media targeting and precision audience planning, creativity remains the most powerful driver of advertising performance. Across key outcomes like brand recall, favorability, purchase intent, and video ROI, creative elements account for over 50% of the impact.

This doesn’t diminish the importance of effective media planning — rather, it signals a need for publishers and advertisers to strike a smarter balance between data-driven audience strategy and compelling, scalable creative to maximize value. Wieser writes, “Marketers should benefit wherever and whenever they can tie their creative and media decisioning together through software or services.”

New tools create new opportunities.

While premium advertising formats like video hold significant value, many small and mid-sized brands struggle to participate due to resource and expertise constraints. Generative AI technologies are rapidly increasing brands’ abilities to produce high-quality, customized creative at scale.

For publishers, this creates a meaningful opportunity. By connecting advertisers with AI-powered creative tools and data-driven platforms, publishers can attract new advertisers, enhance the value of their audiences, and grow revenue through expanded advertiser partnerships.

However, many publishers are unable to maximize their valuable audience insights due to organizational silos. While customer data platforms (CDPs) have helped centralize profiles, publishers need to evolve these platforms to power intelligent activation — using real-time data across marketing, advertising, and content teams to deliver more cohesive, optimized customer experiences across all channels.

A three-pillar framework for modern audience monetization.

To help publishers innovate their ad offerings, Adobe outlines a three-pillar framework that connects advanced creative, intelligent audience strategy, and collaborative measurement.

1. Supercharge ad creation and personalization with generative AI.

Through the combination of static image and video generation from Adobe Firefly with simple ad assembly workflows in Adobe GenStudio for Performance Marketing publishers can enable their advertisers to easily produce high-quality creative using marketer-friendly tools. Publishers can expand their rosters of ad buyers as small and midmarket brands, empowered with generative AI, shift marketing budgets to premium destinations like connected TV (CTV).

With supporting capabilities like automated ad variations, localization, and custom models, advertisers can quickly scale and personalize creative for multiple audiences while maintaining brand integrity and quality. Advertisers can reduce ad repetition, providing a more varied, personalized ad experience for viewers.

2. Activate high-quality audiences through advertiser and publisher data collaboration.

Adobe Real-Time CDP Collaboration offers publishers a platform-agnostic, privacy-first way to work with advertisers to improve targeting, prospecting, and suppression efforts across publisher-owned channels. This type of collaboration enhances the value of publisher audiences, driving improved match rates, conversions, and advertiser ROI — ultimately increasing the effectiveness and appeal of publisher inventory.

Publishers like NBCUniversal and Warner Bros. Discovery are reporting benefits like higher match rates, while Alterra, advertising with NBCU, saw a 30% lift in conversion rates.

3. Optimize advertiser ROI with seamless closed-loop measurement.

Advertisers have high expectations for analytics and reporting across search and social media channels. By securely combining audience data, exposure data, and conversion data via data collaboration, publishers and advertisers can accurately measure how many sales were driven by specific campaigns and optimize future efforts. Capabilities like streaming media analytics in Adobe Customer Journey Analytics and Adobe Content Analytics allow publishers to provide robust content and media performance data — to reinforce relationships with their advertisers and increase incremental ad spend.

Why it matters.

Publishers that implement these strategies can expect to see meaningful improvements in CPM rates, advertiser roster size, and share of advertisers’ performance marketing budgets. Beyond protecting existing business, this approach positions publishers to compete more effectively with walled gardens and large platforms, tapping into a market opportunity that Adobe estimates at over $20 billion annually — spanning commerce media, CTV, and other emerging channels.

As these capabilities mature, publishers of all sizes — from major media brands to emerging commerce media networks — will be better positioned to turn audience data and creative innovation into sustainable, performance-driven growth. Those who move early and invest in these areas will be best placed to capture new market share as advertising continues to fragment across channels, formats, and platforms.

To further unpack what steps you should take to evolve your ad business, watch the recording of Brian Wieser (Madison and Wall), Bridget Jayaram (Warner Bros. Discovery), and Sam Garfield’s (Adobe) virtual discussion on the evolution of advertising and next-gen audience monetization with Adobe.

https://video.tv.adobe.com/v/3464031?hidetitle=true

Sam Garfield serves as the head of digital strategy, communications, media and travel at Adobe where he provides thought leadership and works with CMT companies on digital transformation efforts. In his previous role, he was the strategic lead responsible for setting the vision, strategy, and focus of AARP Services’ data infrastructure and analytics offering. Prior to that, Sam spent 16 years at Discovery Inc., focusing on financial systems, process improvement, and data analytics. He was the vice president of data strategy and advanced audience platforms, providing leadership on the data strategy and roadmap for Engage, Discovery’s advanced TV product. He has received bachelor’s and master’s degrees in business administration from the University of Maryland.

Zack Ackerman is a senior digital strategy associate at Adobe where he advises media, entertainment, and sports companies on their digital transformation efforts for content supply chain and customer experience. Prior to Adobe, Zack spent four years in corporate and investment strategy for travel, hospitality, and healthcare brands. He received his bachelor's degree from the University of Virginia and his master's degree from Virginia Commonwealth University.

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