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The 2025 holiday shopping data highlights top-line spend, the days driving the highest sales, and the continued rise of mobile as the dominant shopping channel. Buy now, pay later is expected to see increased spend throughout the season, while AI-driven traffic to retail sites is set to accelerate rapidly. See below for more detailed insights shaping this holiday season.
The 2025 holiday season is poised to be the first quarter trillion-dollar holiday season. Adobe forecasts a record $253.4B will be spent online this holiday season (Nov 1–Dec 31) up 5.3% year-on-year.
Mobile devices have cemented their dominance, as 2025 is poised to be the first full year mobile makes up more than 50% of online spend. Adobe forecasts mobile revenue share to hit a record 56.1% this holiday season, while 7 in 10 retail site visits will take place on mobile devices.
Buy now, pay later continues to be an important payment option for consumers this holiday season. Adobe forecasts $20.2B will be spent through the payment method this holiday (Nov 1–Dec 31, 2025), 11% growth over 2024.
AI is changing how consumers shop for holiday gifts. This holiday season, traffic from AI sources (LLMs) to retail sites is expected to rise 515–520% from the 2024 holidays.
Toys, video games and consoles, and electronics are all expected to be key drivers of holiday spending. Below are the products and categories Adobe expects to fly off the shelves this holiday season.
